Introduction
Nearly $236 billion in global drug sales is set to lose exclusivity by 2030, pushing the pharmaceutical industry toward one of the sharpest patent cliffs in its history.
Unlike previous cycles, this wave is dominated by biologics and complex small-molecule drugs, meaning the impact will be deeper, faster and far more disruptive to existing profit pools. Originator companies are already scrambling - diversifying pipelines, accelerating targeted M&A, and rethinking pricing and lifecycle strategies but the reality is clear: the competitive landscape over the next five years will turn a new leaf.
What does this mean for india
For India, long regarded as the “pharmacy of the world,” this cliff is not just a risk to be watched; it is a structural inflection point.
Beyond supplying roughly 20% of global generics today, India now has the chance to pivot from a volume-led, cost-advantaged exporter to become a strategic hub for high-value products such as complex generics, biosimilars and advanced manufacturing solutions.
With over 750 FDA-approved plants and proven execution at scale, India is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the value that will be released as Big Pharma’s exclusivities unwind. The coming decade could mark India’s evolution from a back-end manufacturing base to a central node in global pharma innovation and supply resilience.
how can indian pharmaceutical players capitalize on this opportunity
The opportunity window, however, will not remain open for everyone. As biologics and complex molecules lose protection, early movers in India that have built operational capacities and capabilities, have regulatory readiness and strategic partnerships will be poised to leverage the opportunity & lock in advantage for years. Late entrants risk being trapped in a race to the bottom on price, while a select few capture premium positions.
Our latest report for Indian pharmaceutical companies lays out the strategic options, risk trade-offs and execution levers that will define the next era of value creation, focusing on how Indian Pharma companies are poised to capitalize on the $236bn opportunity.
